Tuesday, December 1, 1998
Can't measure a team by its points
Use Winning percentage
This article was published on-line by
Tuesday, December 1, 1998
Can't measure a team by its points
Use Winning percentage
Chris Jones
National Post
According to Stephen Markson, a Toronto-based statistician and avid sports fan, the way the National Hockey League calculates its standings is deceptively simple -- with "deceptive" being the operative word.
So Markson has begun a campaign to change the way hockey ranks its teams. In an open letter to the league and major media outlets, he asks that winning percentage replace points as the measure of a club's success.
"In my mind, and in the minds of baseball, football, and basketball fans, the best team is the one that has the best winning percentage. Why should this be any different in hockey?," he argues.
At first blush, the NHL's standings seem logical enough. A team gets two points for a win, one for a tie, and none for a loss. The team with the most points is the best team in the league.
But Markson argues that this system may not accurately reflect performance.
He uses the Toronto Maple Leafs to illustrate his argument. The Leafs are currently 13-9-2, and therefore have 28 points. That's good for second place in the entire league, two points back of the Phoenix Coyotes for top spot.
Phoenix, however, is 14-2-2. The Coyotes have six games in hand, and more importantly, also own a far higher winning percentage than the Maple Leafs.
Dallas, New Jersey, Buffalo, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia also have a higher winning percentage than eighth-place Toronto.
And yet all except Phoenix are ranked behind the Maple Leafs in the standings.
"Points are misleading," says Markson. "What team do you think is better: The team who has won more games, or the team who wins more often?"
To drive the point home, Markson notes that Toronto would have to win their next 36 games to equal Phoenix's current winning percentage of .833.
Markson, 47, knows that winning percentage can be a complicated calculation (the number of wins plus half the number of ties divided by games played).
So Markson has gone one step further, and developed a statistic -- "Games Above Five-hundred," or GAF -- that provides a relatively accurate estimate of winning percentage in a way fans can readily understand.
The GAF is simply the number of wins minus the number of losses. Ties are mathematically eliminated.
The Maple Leafs, for example, have a GAF of +4 at the moment (13 wins - 9 losses). Phoenix, on the other hand, is +12 (14 wins - 2 losses).
Come the playoffs, Markson acknowledges that it doesn't matter which system is used.
"At the end of the season," he says, "all systems are equal."
But for an accurate mid-season comparison, Markson believes nothing beats his proposal.
"I think my idea should be implemented," he says.
"I just need someone at the league to listen."
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